The page 1 photo in today's New York Times, showing the proximate profiles of Russia's Vladimir Putin and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is a bit chilling for what it may portend. They mutually declared that "any use of force" in the Caspian Sea region is unacceptable, which is reasonable enough, but consider the following context: Intelligence sources we rely on note growing evidence that "Ahmadinejad is making a grave miscalculation about the Bush administration's willingness to act militarily in its final year in office." These sources suggest that the recent Israeli bombing of nuclear facilities in Syria "is indicative that the US/Israel are preparing for a military showdown with Iran in the coming months."
The NYT photo showing Putin and the Iranian president shoulder-to-shoulder may symbolize how a military exchange in the region might escalate beyond expected boundaries. Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice, who has favored diplomatic measures to deal with Iran, is now leaning toward Vice President Cheney, who with his Middle East adviser David Wurmser has been contemplating strategies to provoke a military showdown with Iran. War plans actually carried out are riddled with perverse unintended consequences, history shows. It is hard to come up with an exhaustive list of possibilities in this case, although $180-a-barrel oil is readily suggested in some analysis, with a global recession soon to follow, and maybe cells of terrorists released to do their damnedest.
Suffice to say that anyone who is not seriously thinking through the "Iran attacked" scenario is probably unprepared for what could well develop before the end of 2008.
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