Current events in Egypt and spreading effects in the Middle East underscore that the world is changing rapidly. It is not obvious where some things are headed. The have-nots are increasingly empowered and inclined to express their desire for fairness and a bigger slice of the pie. What form this will take is not clear. Many of our past presumptions do not hold, and will not.
In the United States, the leadership, such as it is, is spread between executive and legislative branches and a troubled populace. We are all grappling with what seem to be intractable problems: a stalled economy, high unemployment, unbalanced budgets, need for deep cuts (and rebalancing of inter-generational claims).
In financial markets, analysts are seeing a breakdown in historical correlations, as the prices of equities have risen with gold prices, for example. The emerging role/power of China is one critical uncertainty; the unsettled Mideast another; the developed world's debt and economies another; and the potential impacts of new technologies, for better and for worse, still another.
The rear view mirror does not appear to be the place to look for a sense of direction.
My thesis for individual and organizations is this: we all have to be willing to take a new set of risks. That means being open to ideas that might have seemed unacceptable, even inconceivable, not so long ago.
We have to give up our notion of the "Official Future" - what we imagined would be true, or wanted to be true (everything will be fine).
It will not be. Scenario thinking will help, but an initial required step is personal, in terms of our own risk appetites in both thought and action. What do we need to reconsider - and consider doing differently - that can really make a difference? What should we stop doing, in order to start doing what?
Does it make more sense to finish college or go out in the world to work to address social and technical problems?
Should we be curtailing immigration or actually increasing it to bring new energy into the country?
Should we get out of the wars we're in, but adopt universal conscription and national service, dedicated to national and global challenges?
If everyone at this point clings to the notion that all the same sacred cows are sacred, we will not be able to feed the herd.
So I would ask: what now do you dare?
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